I've noticed that BTC tends to reverse right before major numbers. We're at the upper median line on an extended impulse with 3 drives right below 4000. It's a natural area to see some sort of reversal. Something to watch.
Komentarz
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Just to add: Go back and look at BTC reverse down right before 3000 and reverse up right before 1800 for reference.
Also: this could easily turn parabolic up. I'm trying to predict a cap on a powerfully long market so there's a lot more risk. Would like to see sellers first
Big green red candle maybe the beginning of a correction !
SpandyAndy
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It's been days of steady, it's got to drop. Well yes, it will drop, duh! Let's look at something outside the parabolic. When it dropped to $1800 it was forking as a coin. The coin has made the upgrade. It's up up and away. It's a new game. Until the next media spin. Right now, in the media, Fidelity Investments just started offering a BTC ticker. I believe these driving forces have a much larger effect on perceived vakue.
1877
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@SpandyAndy, BTC hasn't meet my criteria until now, I'm not sure what other people were basing the 'it's got drop' attitude on. We are at the outer limit of the frequency we've been moving up in for months. Price tends to run out of energy and become a 'decision' point at these lines. Either sellers will step in (we did just see the 1st round hit the market the last couple of hours, not sure if that's enough though) or we will use this line as a pedestal to launch way higher. But a decision will be made here.
With a stop just over 4000, the 1st round of sellers already gave me a 2:1 R/R (Reward to Risk) on my position which means i can break even, even with being right only 50% of the time. I'm just stacking the RR in my favor.
If you go back and look at my trades I'm very long BTC and ETH. I still am, but hedging positions to buy lower.
jwilcharts
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Once the sell pressure starts it will reflect dramatically. The sell pressure is starting to increase a lot, but there are just an insane amount of buyers right now. I too think it will be decided right at 4k
1877
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If someone could circulate negative news on crypto right now, they'd make a killing short. The longs are stacked up and people are chasing. One good article could wash them out perfectly
grant.salvin
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Also Goldman Sachs put said $3910 was the upper target, but looks like we got there very quickly. I'm already short but keeping a very close eye.
1877
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@Grant.salvin, BTC and cryptos have so much momentum and like to blow though levels. But I like to look at the RR and it meets my criteria even if I had a 50% win rate. The only thing missing from this trade is seeing the sellers come in, so I'm a little early. But it can't always be perfect.
SpandyAndy
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@1877, there are only 21 million Bitcoin & many will never sell. The demand and rarity increasing every second. :)
grant.salvin
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@1877, I agree the bears haven't arrived yet, but I'll close at break even if it goes back up. I'm hoping for something like a bigger wave 4 towards $3000 and then another wave 5 up to $5000 ish. I'm still learning elliott wave and I've got various wave counts on BTC so I'm unsure what's about to happen.
The pullback on the 1 min chart looks like a zigzag -> flat -> bearish impulse (forming). If price goes back above $3926 on bitfinex I'll close position, but i think it still has to drop at least a little bit more.