Detailed Breakdown and Analysis of BTC/USD 1D Chart
1. Wyckoff Phases and Structure:
Phase A: Marks the end of a downtrend with a Selling Climax (SC) followed by an Automatic Rally (AR). This suggests a shift toward accumulation.
Phase B: Accumulation or distribution phase with multiple sub-waves, featuring Secondary Tests (ST) and Show of Weakness (SOW). This phase shows market indecision.
Phase C: Potential Spring or final test before a breakout. The 72,000 resistance level acts as a critical boundary within the range.
2. Fibonacci Levels and Extensions:
1.236 extension near 91,292.60: This is a critical upper boundary, where wave 5 might face resistance.
1.618 and 1.786 extensions (78,271.82 and 80,940.70): Targets that could provide confirmation points for wave 3.
0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels (69,586.55 and 63,087.57): Support levels during possible wave 4 pullbacks.
3. Wave Counts and Elliott Wave Structure:
The Primary Wave Count shows the development of an impulse wave (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). BTC is currently in wave 3, with a potential pullback into wave 4.
Complex Corrections: Wave 2 and Wave 4 corrections are marked as shallow or complex, indicating variability in the depth of the corrections.
Wave 5 Projections: Wave 5 might extend to new highs with targets at 84,340.33 (1.618 extension) and 91,292.60 (1.236 extension), subject to volume confirmation.
4. Inducement and Confirmation Zones:
Inducement Points: Levels like 73,805.27 and 80,940.70 could attract traders, potentially setting up for pullbacks.
Confirmation Zones: If BTC stays above 78,271.82, this would confirm the continuation of wave 5 upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: 52,500 acts as a key lower boundary.
Resistance: 72,665.73 represents significant overhead supply within the B/C distribution phase.
The current strong low is around 63,087.57, and a break below this level would invalidate the bullish structure.
6. Volume Divergence and Trend Indications:
Volume Divergence: Expected around 77,727.09, indicating potential exhaustion of buying momentum as prices approach upper resistance zones.
A potential Diagonal Wave 5 could signal a reversal or significant correction after it completes.
7. Projected Future Movements and Strategic Points:
Upside Targets: Key targets for wave 5 completion are between 84,340 and 91,292.
Wave 4 Retracement: Anticipated retracement zone between 69,586.55 (0.382) and 63,087.57 (0.618), offering potential entry points if the price respects these zones.
Wave Invalidations: A break below 63,087.57 would invalidate the current wave structure and could signal a deeper correction.
Summary:
The analysis combines Wyckoff accumulation/distribution with Elliott Wave and Fibonacci levels to map out BTC’s potential price path.
The structure suggests BTC may continue higher if it stays above key support zones, with upside targets around 84,000 to 91,000.
However, a break below 63,087.57 could invalidate the bullish wave count, leading to a bearish shift.
Phase A: Marks the end of a downtrend with a Selling Climax (SC) followed by an Automatic Rally (AR). This suggests a shift toward accumulation.
Phase B: Accumulation or distribution phase with multiple sub-waves, featuring Secondary Tests (ST) and Show of Weakness (SOW). This phase shows market indecision.
Phase C: Potential Spring or final test before a breakout. The 72,000 resistance level acts as a critical boundary within the range.
2. Fibonacci Levels and Extensions:
1.236 extension near 91,292.60: This is a critical upper boundary, where wave 5 might face resistance.
1.618 and 1.786 extensions (78,271.82 and 80,940.70): Targets that could provide confirmation points for wave 3.
0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels (69,586.55 and 63,087.57): Support levels during possible wave 4 pullbacks.
3. Wave Counts and Elliott Wave Structure:
The Primary Wave Count shows the development of an impulse wave (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). BTC is currently in wave 3, with a potential pullback into wave 4.
Complex Corrections: Wave 2 and Wave 4 corrections are marked as shallow or complex, indicating variability in the depth of the corrections.
Wave 5 Projections: Wave 5 might extend to new highs with targets at 84,340.33 (1.618 extension) and 91,292.60 (1.236 extension), subject to volume confirmation.
4. Inducement and Confirmation Zones:
Inducement Points: Levels like 73,805.27 and 80,940.70 could attract traders, potentially setting up for pullbacks.
Confirmation Zones: If BTC stays above 78,271.82, this would confirm the continuation of wave 5 upward, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: 52,500 acts as a key lower boundary.
Resistance: 72,665.73 represents significant overhead supply within the B/C distribution phase.
The current strong low is around 63,087.57, and a break below this level would invalidate the bullish structure.
6. Volume Divergence and Trend Indications:
Volume Divergence: Expected around 77,727.09, indicating potential exhaustion of buying momentum as prices approach upper resistance zones.
A potential Diagonal Wave 5 could signal a reversal or significant correction after it completes.
7. Projected Future Movements and Strategic Points:
Upside Targets: Key targets for wave 5 completion are between 84,340 and 91,292.
Wave 4 Retracement: Anticipated retracement zone between 69,586.55 (0.382) and 63,087.57 (0.618), offering potential entry points if the price respects these zones.
Wave Invalidations: A break below 63,087.57 would invalidate the current wave structure and could signal a deeper correction.
Summary:
The analysis combines Wyckoff accumulation/distribution with Elliott Wave and Fibonacci levels to map out BTC’s potential price path.
The structure suggests BTC may continue higher if it stays above key support zones, with upside targets around 84,000 to 91,000.
However, a break below 63,087.57 could invalidate the bullish wave count, leading to a bearish shift.
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Informacje i publikacje przygotowane przez TradingView lub jego użytkowników, prezentowane na tej stronie, nie stanowią rekomendacji ani porad handlowych, inwestycyjnych i finansowych i nie powinny być w ten sposób traktowane ani wykorzystywane. Więcej informacji na ten temat znajdziesz w naszym Regulaminie.