As mentioned in previous analyses, we are currently in a short term bullish reversal inside a longer bear trend or better said; a bear market. But this time is different!? Hmmm... nope.
Bitcoin and crypto has entered a bear market regardless of what the YouTubers and hodlers might make you think... Just look at the chart and see for yourself; once the parabolic structure is broken; Bitcoin enters a bear market, no exception! But many people say "this time its different!"!!? Well, that's what they want, not what is actually happening.
I'll tell you what's different this time.... The current bull run is an early adoption bull run whereas the previous bull runs were pre-adoption. This has an important impact on especially our current bear trend (or market) and that is that the current bear market will still be there however it won't take years to get back up! My current view is that we enter a bear market of a few months instead of a few years. The length and price levels will all depend on the stock market and the overall market sentiment.
As of for now for the immediate short term; we are entering a new phase of denial and hype where most retail traders will provide liquidity to the downside by placing longs on crypto coins due to the current bullish trend. This means that the money is below us! Just a week ago that liquidity was above us - given most traders went short. So in the end it's simple; in the first week of June we will see a market wide correction (again) to grab liquidity from those longs. First however; we will see that liquidity being built over the next days; just check your ideas stream and you will see over 90% longs. So that marks potentially the biggest crypto bull trap in history given our current market size. I keep a very close look on how the market develops over the weekend and I am specifically looking at Saturday through Monday for bearish confirmations. If we do not see any bearish developments over the first weeks of June; I am most likely wrong. But looking at historical data; we are following the bear trend perfectly, just check my BTC ideas linked below and see how it all ligns up....
So in short, I am looking for shorts when the current bull trend fades out, most likely over the weekend.
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Komentarz
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BTC UPDATE: Future calls have been dumped hence the BTC price is down. We still have 2 expiries coming today; one in a few hours and one at 16.00 London time. We might see more correction today or in the coming days. It's D-DAY!