Monday morning Elliot Wave update

Updated my charts.

The light blue path was invalidated last night. I knew it just by looking at the path and the 30min RSI because it just didn't look like an impulse up wave.

Nevertheless, because BTC chews you up and spits you out, especially when you're sleeping - I set my stop order buys in case BTC changes direction going up instead of the expected down.

This morning I woke to see BTC bounce off $8000 as I expected, however this bounce does not look like a "end of subwave 1" bounce, it looks like a "end of sub-subwave 3 of subwave 1" bounce, but it's still early to conclude.

You see how this new sub-subwave 4 kinda looks like sub-subwave 2, which therefore implies we still have sub-subwave 5 going down to complete the subwave? That's why Elliot Wave opponents should reconsider. Yes it seems highly arbitrary, but of course it is: no-one can predict where the price will go 100% - if so I'd mortgage my house and bet everything.

What Elliot Wave gives us is this: imagine a game of Battleships. Elliot Wave allows us to play Battleships with a large portion of the empty spots revealed already. We don't know for sure where the enemy is, but it narrows our target range.

Back to the wave. I believe we are on Subwave C of wave 2. It looks dire, but it also means that we still have Wave 3, and Wave 5 going up to 10k and beyond.

Corrective Waves like to retrace to Fib levels, which gives us $7982 and $7658 as the 0.618 and 0.786 Fib retracement levels of this wave 2. It just bounced off 8000ish which is close enough to the 618 IMO. But it doesn't look like the end of Wave 2.

The behavior of the bounce off $8000 does not lead me to believe we haven't seen the end of Subwave 3, but the volume seems to suggest we have. If we see a bounce off $7600-$7700 that kind of looks like subwave 2, then we've probably got one subwave 5 to go down to even lower levels. I would pause and not do anything at this stage because I would think something is wrong. Maybe from the peak of $9170, we just started a new 12345 impulse wave down instead of a corrective wave?

In short, I think 50% probability the bottom is $7600-$7700, 30% the bottom is $8000, and 20% the bottom is lower than 7600-7700.

Let's consider the 30% and 20% probability alternatives:

1. The bottom was the 618 Fib level. Evidence: the 30min RSI level is oversold, which coincides with the start of every impulse wave since $7200, and the volume (IMO) looks good enough to support this compared to other subwaves. Evidence against: the bounce doesn't look convincing; However, I have seen BTC stay flat along the bottom and then bounce up all of a sudden, so this might happen.
2. The Wave 2 end is not the 786 retracement level. BTC likes to bounce off the 786 retracement level. It did that when it bounced off $6000 and $7200. If it goes much lower, I would be concerned my count is wrong. It would mean coming out of $7200 was an ABC count, C ending where I have my subwave B of Wave 2. This would be confirmed if the price drops below 7200.

You notice those purple trend lines - they are the long-term monthly trend lines. If we break those lines, we are in trouble. If it drops below $7250 (the start of what I think is Wave 1), then we're also in trouble.