This chart is a bit complex. Anyone interested in exploring it might best use the "Make it Mine" function under "Share".
1) The timing is guesswork, even with the Fibonacci time tool overlaid. The main point is that I still see these levels as being in play.
2) In terms of Wyckoff, I don't think we've seen the Seller's Climax (SC) yet. What I think we've seen, according to the seven-wave crash structure count, is Wave 5, roll up to Wave 6 (which includes an ABC Elliot corrective wave), and now BTC is printing the macro Wave 7.
3) The macro Wave 7 should come in below macro Wave 5, and repeats the entire seven-wave structure. It appears to me that sub-wave 1 and sub-wave 2 are in, and BTC is currently printing sub-wave 3, down to around 33.2, which also can be seen as the bottom of a channel, with the whole channel constituting a bear flag.
4) From Wave 3, I will be looking for a roll up to Wave 4, at around 37. From there, I would expect a key pivot point, and for BTC to break to the downside out of the channel, reaching between 27.2 and 22, to complete Wave 5. The reason sub-wave 5 is difficult to pinpoint precisely is we don't know whether the macro Wave 5 will turn out to have landed, relative to the base, on the 0.702 or 0.786 Fibonacci of the whole seven-wave (Wave C of the ABC correction) movement. So the final macro Wave 7 could land anywhere between 21.4 and 16.9. Either one, or in-between.
5) The possible landing points for sub-wave 5 and sub-wave 6 are marked on the chart. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.786 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 5 will come in higher, at 25.6 most likely. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.702 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 5 will come in lower, at 22 most likely. Likewise, if the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.786 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 6 will come in higher, between 28.8 and 31.1. If the macro Wave 5 is on the 0.702 relative to the ultimate base, sub-wave 6 will come in lower, between 26 and 28.8.
6) Depending on where sub-wave 5 comes in, we might be able to better estimate which of these levels for the macro Wave 7 will be hit.
7) It's also possible that none of this plays out: that the bottom of the channel is respected, and BTC is simply retesting that line. We really won't know for sure until and if that channel is broken to the downside, after sub-wave 4 comes in.
8) That said, so far, from a fractal perspective and a Fibonacci sequencing perspective, I do think BTC has one major leg down still to complete. And I think this leg down will constitute the Seller's Climax, from a Wyckoff Distribution Phase perspective.
9) It's very possible that we see a subsequent retest of where macro Wave 7 lands, which would constitute a Secondary Test in Phase B of an emerging Wyckoff Accumulation Phase.
10) If Wyckoff's Accumulation Schematic One turns out to characterise the subsequent accumulation phase, we could see a slightly deeper reach down beyond even that Secondary Test, which would constitute the "Spring" of Phase C in that schematic. That would be a month or two out from where we are.
Feel free to comment.
Komentarz
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29 May 2021 09:52:16: Fibonacci sequences and fractals are at best just flagpoles on a map. Doesn't mean price will ever get there. But for what it's worth (and likely not much), price action currently suggests a narrowing on the middle of a prior range, now between 20.4 and 18 as the base. Interested in anyone's thoughts - especially those in disagreement.
Komentarz
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31 May 2021 12:08:59: Watch out for rejection or continuance around the 37-38 level.
Komentarz
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31 May 2021 13:08:13: May not happen, but this is more or less what I expect to happen. Local H&S, and significant drop (sub-wave 5), probably by Thursday, with a fairly decent relief rally through the weekend (sub-wave 6), and calls that the bottom is in, only for the last thrust down (sub-wave 7) to follow, marking the true base of the larger ABC movement. Again: just an expectation. Anything can happen, except left.
Komentarz
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02 Jun 2021 14:17:57: I see a structure that isn't complete, but with the 50 weekly EMA providing support, and despite that the 200 weekly EMA aligns with where a complete structure might end, we're fairly close to breaking point where the chart would be suggesting to flip bias. Below in the circle is where I have thought we are relative to a completed seven-wave crash structure.
Komentarz
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03 Jun 2021 12:39:24: These last few days I've been looking back through BTC's price history to try to find ABC correction structures and see how the end played out. There are actually not too many of them. Most corrections have been v-bottoms, which is a seven-wave crash structure immediately reversed to the upside. An ABC pattern is two seven-wave crash structures with a corrective wave in-between. At any rate, the evidence is inconclusive. The descent into the bear market following the 2017 peak was an ABC, but very drawn out over time. Months, not weeks. May to July 2017 was also an ABC pattern, but also very extended horizontally, and so not easy to drawn conclusions from. I remain in a dilemma, because it's hard for me to ignore what I see as an incomplete crashing structure, while at the same time, the circle on this screenshot does break a clean logic, and BTC has currently penetrated and may well close a 4hr candle above the weekly 34 EMA, which is an important level to reclaim to the upside. BTC is also above the 0.786 of a local Fibonacci, which might suggest a breakout. Personally, I'm not sure there are ever "fakeouts" on charts. Retrospectively, many fakeouts actually appear to be part of a logical structure that just wasn't apparent at the time. Is this to say there is no manipulation? For sure, no. In that sense, fakeouts exist. And right now, there is a slight uptick in top trader (high volume orders) short positions, a downturn in top trader longs, while absolute longs are increasing, shorts decreasing, suggesting a possible bull trap. But this situation could turn on a dime. What is clear is that overall volume is not particularly impressive. Currently I'm just watching the market, to see what it wants to do.
Komentarz
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08 Jun 2021 06:17:52: There's too much uncertainty to project with any degree of confidence where the base will come in, but for what it's worth, these are the levels I'm roughly looking at currently. The ABCDE that marked a period of sideways consolidation went on far longer than I would have imagined. I expected a roll up from Wave 5 to 6, and a fairly swift continuance down. On the one hand, the size of the bear flag that was printing in Wave 6 is such that one might expect a dramatic drop now. On the other hand, the beginning of Wave 7 (if that is what is currently being printed) has been characterised by apparent parity between selling and buying. It will take a dramatic and concerted push down now to see this wave now come in line with the original levels projected. But perhaps sub-wave 5 is indeed dramatic. It's also possible that we're simply seeing a double-bottom, and that sub-29k never arrives. I continue to watch price action. In the yellow bands in this screenshot are existing CME gaps that beg to be filled. The bottom of the logarithmic growth curve currently sits at 18.4k.
@itzblaze111, At this point, there is no distinct structure that I can see — at least according to what I was originally seeing may play out. More precisely, there's little to no confluence in terms of projected measurements according to Fibonacci levels. What appears to have been an ABCDE wave was surprising to me. And if now we're printing the seventh wave I was expecting, so far it's odd, with a distinct wave 1 that wasn't followed by a larger wave 3, while if 3 is coming in now, the last roll up (marked on my chart as 4) would seem odd. Is it wave 5, or is it just playing within a pennant? I certainly had expected the lower low of 30k to be taken out by wave 7, but despite the most recent price action, this is still not sure. There remain distinct targets to the downside, in terms of liquidity (18-20k) and the CME gaps, but it's anyone's guess if these levels will be actually reached. I'm waiting for more price action and to try to see what it reveals. Presently, my chart is a mess to be honest.
@itzblaze111, Didn't go as far down as I would have expected for 5. But I think we are in 5, if 5 is indeed 5. It's also possible that we've seen 6 and 7 and the bottom is in. But if you look at the major wave 5, there were a lot of pauses along the way. The whole structure suggests 20k or even lower. It wouldn't surprise me to see that play out. But I'd also not be surprised to see BTC give me the finger and take off into the mid-40s. Tough times and almost impossible to call.
itzblaze111
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do you still think even after 10-20k range it can hit new highs... might scare away all the retail folks.
ianrdouglas
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@itzblaze111, Retail won't send BTC to new ATHs. Institutions will. Retail will be invited to buy the top, just as retail now is being shaken out, in order to sell the bottom at a loss to institutions. Once momentum to the upside picks up (pushed by institutions), retail will recover confidence and start buying. As BTC reaches up to full extension, FOMO and euphoria will peak, probably on news that 100k, 200k is approaching. Then we'll see a massive sell off, perhaps even bigger than we have just seen. None of the above is assured, but it's what I expect to happen. Institutions only need retail to sell to at tops, and buy from at bottoms.
itzblaze111
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@ianrdouglas, yeah I definitely agree on the large sell off. I think this run is a little bit inflated and honestly this MAY be the end of the 2021 run, similar to the 2019 mini run we had after the 2018 crash. this time that mini run may extend higher than this one IMO.