In 2015, a multi-months range market was just starting. Exact same timelapse. Misleading.
NoaTrader
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@GreenValleyTrading, I agree with the the similarity in timelapse but the market now is very different with 2015 in terms of liquidity and depth and volatility and number of traders and ... the boxes are drawn with the same logic from the script.I am only suggesting that based on previous cylces with this logic, the worst scenario after seeing blue box signal (that happend at 2015) was seeing the last bottom which in this case would be 15K
wargolynch
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@noafarin, Have higher valuations ever been a solid reason for financial assets not to evolve in a sideway fashion before going up? This is what happens almost all the time when the capitulation is not designed by a flash crash and giant wick. In 2015, there was not any reason for the market to range but it still did. In 2019, there was not any reason for the market to range and it did not. In 2023, global inflation has been sky high (75' like levels) for more than a year and it only slowed down for two months yet. SP500 is currently trying to break over its yearly pivot point but it could take months. Agreed, anything below 14k is now out of the picture with buy volumes visible on the weekly TF!
alafzi
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According to your chart, in 2014, winter was 555 days and it has not been repeated! So it may be 555 days or less this year, repeating the same thing in the past is wrong! Anyway 12 is a logical number for the floor and we haven't seen the floor yet and time will tell what was right!
NoaTrader
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@alafzi, I don't insist on the number of days. the logic behind the script for calculating each box is only price action based and there is nothing to do with the number of days. I just wanted to show the days in each box to give a sense of past cylces and range that how long winters could be. Interesting point is that both red boxes at 2014 and now have price movements with 0.1% difference! If price goes lower than 15K you will be wright.
Misleading.