While almost every trader is focused on derivative indicators, subjective chart patterns, Elliot Waves and other abstract objects or collective illusions (which rarely come true through self-fullfilling prophecies), the only way to be closer to the right outcome in your predicitions is to see the market how it really is. Price can change only when limit orders in one side of the orderbook are filled or canceled, not when it approach some trend line. Markets are driven by retail trader's emotions, but there are also more powerful participants, who decide in which direction it will go. Market makers are able to move the market, but they have problems with executing large orders because of insufficient liquidity. Therefore they need to organize the market's moves in patterns of accumulation and distribution phases. In other words they probably know in which direction the market will move, but they cannot just buy or sell in one particular point. On the other hand we don't know what the future holds, but with right money managment techniques we can be much more flexible. And we know who holds the future.
Today BTC's yearly low from late June (5880 $, Bitstamp) was deepen. It looks like potential ST or Spring. It shouldn't go further than about 4,5 - 5k. We have clear distribution (distribution #2) pattern from November 2017 (note that in these days marketcap of USDT just exploded) to early February 2018. And almost immediately the market moved on to the next stage, which was accumulation (accumulation #2). It's interesting that there was extraordinary dynamic move in USDT marketcap in the end of January 2018. But why accumulation #2 is executed so high? I have a feeling and it's very experimental idea, that these two are parts of bigger one, which will end up as distribution (distribution #1). As Wyckoff said: "That's how it's done - played in both directions". What I expect in the next few months is markup in accumulation #2, which will be in fact UT or UTAD in distribution #1. It should go slightly higher than our present ATH (maybe 25 - 30k). And after that we can expect hughe and long bearmarket with bottom at about 1-3k.
Komentarz
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It's very interesting, that today Bitfinex looks more bearish than Bitstamp. This move probably was initiated on Finex, like this one from 15.10.2018. Watching spread between price on Bitfinex and prices on other exchanges can be helpful in finding local bottom.
Komentarz
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We reached 4855 with high volume on Bitfinex. I don't think it's real bottom yet.
Komentarz
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We probably have local Selling Climax.
Komentarz
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We have AR. Now we're waiting for secondary test. It could be SL hunt.
We have AR. Now we're waiting for secondary test. It could be SL hunt.
pkb6698
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Total Coin Market Cap (2) : 2014 vs 2018
I think this drop is a pedestal for future rise.
K_U_R_T_Z
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@pkb6698, well, when you read forums about trading cryptocurrencies you can notice that every retail trader know for sure that we will have another strong bull run. Most of them are newcomers, who enter cryptoworld in 2017 and missed most profitable moves. In long run retail traders are wrong. They can be right in the middle of the trend, just it. Note that BTC doesn't play a role, which it was designed for and it's 10 years old. It's not widely used payment method, even in darknet. It's speculation vehicle. And as such it's moving in the S-curve shape when we look at higher timeframes. Note that first bubbles (2011 and mid 2013) was 'fast and furious' and next cycles was much more longer and stable. I think we are in the beginning of the end of this S-curve. Of course I'm not referring to BTC as a whole project, but to BTC as speculation toy. I know few good traders who trade only altcoins, because nowadays it's more profitable. I expect huge double top (with second top at higher level) and I think this scenario isn't very popular, keeping in mind that cryptoworld is full of black swans.