Is Bitcoin ready for another impulse?
Good morning TV,
I usually post my video analysis privately for my Cryptosomniac Advantage community but figured I'd do a public analysis today. Here are some of my thoughts:
“I can’t be involved in 50 or 75 things. That’s a Noah’s Ark way of investing – you end up with a zoo that way. I like to put meaningful amounts of money in a few things.” – Warren Buffett\u2028\u2028
- Seller exhaustion being seen in volume and the lack of strength in price drop
- We are finding support exactly where we need to golden pocket 618 fib and not too far from the descending trend line resistance we once had
- Bullish divergence spotted (1h time frame coinbase rsi also on 4h)
- Support at 3750 (prev. Bull flag) being tested on the daily chart\u2028
- Points to focus on right now: Close above $3910 or close below $3655. Anything else is just sideways ranging and noise
- Wicks are hunts stop hunts for longs and shorts - just a battle between the two
- Elliot wave 5 wave structure on daily takes wave 3 up to $4800
- BTC loves 786 fib
- LTC trade of average $44.2, $47.1, and $49
- Potential symm. triangle/ascending triangle target takes us around $4400 - this is exactly where the next big supply zone is
I usually post my video analysis privately for my Cryptosomniac Advantage community but figured I'd do a public analysis today. Here are some of my thoughts:
“I can’t be involved in 50 or 75 things. That’s a Noah’s Ark way of investing – you end up with a zoo that way. I like to put meaningful amounts of money in a few things.” – Warren Buffett\u2028\u2028
- Seller exhaustion being seen in volume and the lack of strength in price drop
- We are finding support exactly where we need to golden pocket 618 fib and not too far from the descending trend line resistance we once had
- Bullish divergence spotted (1h time frame coinbase rsi also on 4h)
- Support at 3750 (prev. Bull flag) being tested on the daily chart\u2028
- Points to focus on right now: Close above $3910 or close below $3655. Anything else is just sideways ranging and noise
- Wicks are hunts stop hunts for longs and shorts - just a battle between the two
- Elliot wave 5 wave structure on daily takes wave 3 up to $4800
- BTC loves 786 fib
- LTC trade of average $44.2, $47.1, and $49
- Potential symm. triangle/ascending triangle target takes us around $4400 - this is exactly where the next big supply zone is
Komentarz:
Here are critical support and resistance levels with supply zones mapped out for our potential landing spot for BTC prices
Komentarz:
Here's a potential flag playing out for BTC that you could catch on a retrace around 382 fib
Komentarz:
LTC trade has been active for us since $44.2/$47.1/$49. Took profits at $52.4 and now ready for a pull back in $50s to ride the next BTC impulse that may drive price toward $4100.
Komentarz:
LTC 1h flag here
Komentarz:
As long as LOOM doesn't retrace under 1400 it has a high probability to keep moving up, esp. if BTC is going to move up consistently. I'll be placing a small buy order at 1515 and scattered orders at stated levels. Your stop should be at 1399. Targets are above the Ichi cloud/supply zone ~1775 first TP, 1995 second TP.
Komentarz:
Our LTC flag broke up. If you took the trade you're up +6%
Komentarz:
Trimming more LTC and cutting my position from 30% to 15% as I now see it hitting the top of our ascending parallel channel + a potential bearish divergence playing out. Best to secure my profits and sit out for better opportunity elsewhere. Trimmed at $55.9
Komentarz:
BTC flag still playing out
Komentarz:
We are slowly grinding our way toward $3900. I am happy with this. I think there may be a quick shakeout candle or wick toward high 3700 and then a strong push toward 4000. Watch out for that and don't panic.
Komentarz:
I've shown this chart many times and technicals sometimes gets boring but if you pay attention to things closely in assets/asset classes they have a pattern-like structure to them. What this chart shows you is reverse retraces of every top to bottom move and then the subsequent move and how much into that move the price retraces. For example you can the price hit the $20k mark and come down to $5920. Then the subsequent move takes prices to $11.7k. This $11,700 move is a reverse retrace of about 382 fib of the $20k down to $5920. You can see all the white fib markers usually catching the reverse retrace at 618 but no higher. Meaning we have consistently created lower highs and have not been able to escape the 618 fib. How does this help us?
Well - if we are to truly reverse the trend of BTC and start showing strength, we must fulfill our reverse retrace beyond the current 618 fib which is currently around $5238 coming from the $6.5k down to $3.1k drop. The red box also shows you a big supply zone we have yet to climb through. We could very well hit this supply and fall back down further but our 5-wave elliot impulse could play out taking us near 50 fib or 618fib and still reverse from there. This is my most likely scenario for price.
Well - if we are to truly reverse the trend of BTC and start showing strength, we must fulfill our reverse retrace beyond the current 618 fib which is currently around $5238 coming from the $6.5k down to $3.1k drop. The red box also shows you a big supply zone we have yet to climb through. We could very well hit this supply and fall back down further but our 5-wave elliot impulse could play out taking us near 50 fib or 618fib and still reverse from there. This is my most likely scenario for price.
Komentarz:
I stated an LTC trade above and if you took it you'd currently be up +9%. Our community, however, got into this call from 44.2, 47.1, and 49. We're up, on average, 20-30% :)
Komentarz:
This channel/ascending broadening wedge is still playing out
If anyone wants to learn technicals DM or how I execute trades DM me
If anyone wants to learn technicals DM or how I execute trades DM me
Komentarz:
Good Evening Traders,
I don't want to go in-depth of what Wyckoff accumulation/distribution scenarios are so I'll be brief: It's a methodology based on lots market data and analyses by Richard D. Wyckoff that shows how smart money works markets.
The above is a potential scenario that if we have found a temp. bottom at $3100, how the next few months could unfold under the larger outline of smart money accumulation. This schematic is by no means an exact count of impulsive or corrective waves, nor is it an indication of exactly where our support and resistance levels could be created. I've drawn these based on a multitude of factors: previous s/r levels, order blocks, psychological support, UTXO age transactions, market sentiment, and basic supply/demand economics. The schematic levels should be adjusted with market movements.
Drawn from Investopedia and StockCharts:
PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC , reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR .
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC . It is common to have multiple STs after a SC .
Note: Springs or shakeouts usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR ; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring.
I don't want to go in-depth of what Wyckoff accumulation/distribution scenarios are so I'll be brief: It's a methodology based on lots market data and analyses by Richard D. Wyckoff that shows how smart money works markets.
The above is a potential scenario that if we have found a temp. bottom at $3100, how the next few months could unfold under the larger outline of smart money accumulation. This schematic is by no means an exact count of impulsive or corrective waves, nor is it an indication of exactly where our support and resistance levels could be created. I've drawn these based on a multitude of factors: previous s/r levels, order blocks, psychological support, UTXO age transactions, market sentiment, and basic supply/demand economics. The schematic levels should be adjusted with market movements.
Drawn from Investopedia and StockCharts:
PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC , reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR .
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC . It is common to have multiple STs after a SC .
Note: Springs or shakeouts usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR ; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring.
Komentarz:
The order block we are currently in has been the one holding price up just above the 50% fib. Order blocks are nothing more than a large amount of securities of a stock or an asset bought/sold from a buyer/seller in a particular price block. Some key points of identification of an order block:
- An order block is created after a long and strong trend. The order block then looks like a market top or bottom
- Price leaves the order block with a high momentum breakout and/or starts a new trend when leaving the order block
- Price should not stay too long in a range during the creation of the order block
The current OB we're in comes from a few down candles in 2017 before a big up-move. This is considered a bullish order block. Now the bulls from the 2017 OB have not let go of their position and new buyers may slowly begin to believe that the buyers of this OB are willing to defend their position and maybe even double down. One way I perform a test of this is breaking the previous OB into fibs and see if price can stay above 50% fib and keep climbing. As you can see price has now stayed above 50% fib for multiple weeks. In my opinion, it is safe to say that this OB is safe for now. If price comes back under 50% or to $3100 low, I bet this will mark a significant shift in structure. I have no reason to believe that will happen soon. So I stay convicted in my scenario of price reaching high 4000s and low to mid 5000s and make another leg down for a potential capitulation. Till then, I say we're safe.
- An order block is created after a long and strong trend. The order block then looks like a market top or bottom
- Price leaves the order block with a high momentum breakout and/or starts a new trend when leaving the order block
- Price should not stay too long in a range during the creation of the order block
The current OB we're in comes from a few down candles in 2017 before a big up-move. This is considered a bullish order block. Now the bulls from the 2017 OB have not let go of their position and new buyers may slowly begin to believe that the buyers of this OB are willing to defend their position and maybe even double down. One way I perform a test of this is breaking the previous OB into fibs and see if price can stay above 50% fib and keep climbing. As you can see price has now stayed above 50% fib for multiple weeks. In my opinion, it is safe to say that this OB is safe for now. If price comes back under 50% or to $3100 low, I bet this will mark a significant shift in structure. I have no reason to believe that will happen soon. So I stay convicted in my scenario of price reaching high 4000s and low to mid 5000s and make another leg down for a potential capitulation. Till then, I say we're safe.
Komentarz:
This slow grind of BTC is quite healthy. I've turned my ascending broadening wedge (a bearish pattern) into a parallel channel (continuation/neutral pattern). Reason being, the price has not fluctuated wildly in a broad range as needed for ascending broadening wedges. Instead, price is pushing up against the $3900 resistance zone. Now if you look to the left of this red rectangle, you can see multiple wicks that poke right into that tight area and bounce up/down from it. This tells me that this is a critical pivot point that the buyers and sellers are willing to switch positions. Meaning - if price happens to move above this level successfully, I expect a nice pop from price.
Komentarz:
Free Trade: Our community entered ELF right near the 3800 sat level - we are up 10.6% already. We did this based on the technicals of previous resistance was tested as support. As you can see price sits nicely above Pivot and has a long way to go toward R1. Price is around 4070 sats currently. As a free trade to TV for reading our analysis and following us, enjoy the gains of the trade listed.
Buy point 4070-4100 sats
Target Profit: 4710
Profit: 16%
Stop: 3800
Enjoy! DM me if you want to know more about our trades and we make our gains :)
Buy point 4070-4100 sats
Target Profit: 4710
Profit: 16%
Stop: 3800
Enjoy! DM me if you want to know more about our trades and we make our gains :)
Komentarz:
Here's that $3910 marker again. Touching it every time we get rejected hard. But not hard enough to push prices much lower.
Komentarz:
We are slowly grinding our way toward $3900. I am happy with this. I think there may be a quick shakeout candle or wick toward high 3700 and then a strong push toward 4000. Watch out for that and don't panic.
I mentioned this yesterday morning. Told y'all this thing would have a shakeout. Scroll up and see my mention.
I mentioned this yesterday morning. Told y'all this thing would have a shakeout. Scroll up and see my mention.
Komentarz:
Here's our BTC analysis that we provide to the community daily. In this analysis I've also noted some trades in my analysis. Hope y'all enjoy and if you have any questions feel free to DM me :)
If you are part of my community your gains the last 2-3 weeks now exceed 25-35%. In our analysis today I've provided a brief short-term view of BTC and an update on some of the trades our community got into.
If you are part of my community your gains the last 2-3 weeks now exceed 25-35%. In our analysis today I've provided a brief short-term view of BTC and an update on some of the trades our community got into.
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