If you have followed for a while now, I have always mentioned that the charts are always ahead of the news, and this event is proof of works! Now of course it's hindsight at this point, but looking back, the charts were telling us something was a little fishy leading up to the announcement.
Those who were anticipating yet another free lunch, trading on news, hype, and some B2X futures are feeling the pains of their late entry into Bitcoin. We had been warning that this is not the time to be trading this market, but many felt the impulse and emotions and moreover the fear of missing out on a Free $1400 coin. Well there is no Free Lunch in trading! Now I did not foresee the cancellation by any means, my crystal ball is still in the shop getting repaired after it incorrectly was telling me 2 times we should be getting a correction in bitcoin. But the charts were definitely telling us something and whether this was a conspiracy or actually it just lost momentum as we stated in several times is for another blog, this is about the charts leading up, and the signals the market was giving us.
First of all let's go over the 3 coins we are looking at. BCH' in my opinion and many others, is the real McCoy. It adhere's to the original Satoshi white paper more than the coin trading under the BTC' symbol. Now there are several opinions and many have expressed these, but the charts are telling us something different. If BCH' was an insignificant fork, like many have commented on, then why 2 days prior to the announcement was there some heavy activity that counted for a 7% increase in a matter of an hour? What's even more ironic is one day before the announcement we saw more heavy buying of BCH'. Now if others are losing faith in BTC' and how it's being implemented, then it would be fair to say they would put money in the coin they thought adhered to Satoshi or is a better coin period! That is clearly BCH' as the market is mixed today but yet BCH' is up 30% from yesterday. But that wasn't the real clue there were issues with the fork. The real clue was LTC'!
Now LTC' a week ago was trading around it's $50-$55 average over the past month or so, but 24 hours before the announcement look at the move LTC' made! Now why was this significant? Well because LTC' implemented Segwit already. From a fundamental perspective, LTC' is faster, has lower fees, already implemented segwit (resolving the speed issue) and since it is a fork of BTC' would be the ideal Segwit play with BCH' being the ideal larger block play. See a pattern?
The market was clear on it's direction prior to the announcement, and had we been following the charts closely, we could have predicted something was just not right. What gives this even more credence is look at the gains LTC' and moreover BCH' have made since the announcement while BTC' is flat to slightly down. The market is speaking and the charts are telling us the story. This is a time to be investing in BCH' and LTC' and to be neutral on BTC'. Now I expect a pullback to happen in BTC' and this in fighting may just be the catalyst. TO BE CLEAR I'm not saying sell BTC' here, I'm simply stating that the charts predicted the cancellation prior to the actual announcement and we will likely see a pullback to test the channel. See the news didn't matter the charts did!!
Conspiracy or not, the charts almost always predict the movement before an event. Now I did not catch this prior, but we had been cautious on BTC' leading up to the event and had warned that anything that goes wrong with the fork would be good news for BCH' and LTC'. It appears this is the case, especially for BCH which is now over $800 and still climbing!! The market has spoken and the charts were providing us warning that something was wrong before the news even mattered!
Love you stuff, Goldbug.
How low do you think this current BCH correction is going to go?
goldbug1
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@Flanjet, I posted an update on the BCH chart. Keeps from having to write ;)
Kryptokelly
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The reason LTC and BCH got bought up before announcment had nothing to do with said announcment.
We was in the final week before fork and it was very obvious that at some point BTC would decrease a lot compared to BCH & LTC who would have been safe havens in the fork scenario.
Even if BTC as a whole wouldnt decrease in dollars (6000usd BT1) (1500usd BT2) after fork, it still means that BCH and LTC would increase against BTC. So being margin long on BCH and LTC on fork date would have been an almost guaranteed pay day.
goldbug1
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@Kryptokelly, Could be correct on that and a valid argument!
imkeshav
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Another thing guys, from last several days I observed tha BCH charts, it usually rallies in the morning (Indian Time) and corrects from 5-6pm and towards the night. Makes sense because the Asians are 70% volume and the west are anti-BCH and have free coins from the fork and like to make free profits. So Expect a nice buy opportunity in the next few hour
goldbug1
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@imkeshav, Great observation and thank you for sharing!
Spectacular analysis. I love seeing someone so well-versed in TA and who understands the true fundamentals about BCH being the true Bitcoin. Thanks for all your insights! If you have a moment, I would love your opinion as to whether BCH will now likely retrace through the ABC pattern that tends to follow the 12345 Elliott wave. Anyway, thanks again. You're one of the true lights on tradingview IMO.
goldbug1
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@Kobekobe, You are welcome, I have to say thanks to lee on the radio show for that one!
How low do you think this current BCH correction is going to go?